The Global Land Use Dynamics Model (GLUDM) is a gridded and temporally explicit agricultural land use predictor. GLUDM calculates the relative area of a land use category (e.g. cropland) in each grid-cell by generating unique regression coefficients in each grid-cell based on local historic trends and global population dynamics. Spatial ex- pansions or abandonment of agricultural land is simulated by propagating excesses or deficiencies in agricultural areas between neighboring grid-cells. This spatial connectivity is restricted by topographic, latitudinal and urban characteristics. A validation analysis shows that GLUDM corresponds well to observed land use distribution.
Model description and download (via CSDMS Model Repository)
Haney, N., Cohen, S. (2015), Predicting 21st century global agricultural land use with a spatially and temporally explicit regression-based model. Applied Geography, 62: 366-376. doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2015.05.010 [pdf]